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The "One a Day" System from Clive Keeling of Canonbury Publications

Clive Keeling's "One A Day" service aims to provide one short-priced bet recommendation per day.

The idea seems to be that because the odds are short, the strike rate should be high and so this is a slow-burner.

On signing up you are provided access to a members only site which lists the previous recommendations and also the "One A Day" for that particular day. Bets are also sent via email, usually at around lunchtime:

One a Day System email from Clive Keeling

In the email Clive provides details of the bet he recommends that subscribers take along with the odds they should aim for. Typically the wagers are to be placed on the Betfair platform.

At the time I signed up (24th October 2010) the price for one year's subscription was £247 + VAT for a total of £290.

In this experiment the starting bank is £250. Each bet will be 10% of the current bank. Results so far are as follows:


2010:

Date Bet Odds Stake W/L P/L Comm'n Balance
25/10 - - - - - - £250.00
25/10 Porto Win 1.19 25.00 W 4.75 0.24 £254.51
26/10 FC Timisoara Win 1.18 25.45 L (25.45) - £229.06
27/10 Lazio Win 1.29 22.91 W 6.64 0.33 £235.37
28/10 Quick Wit to Place 1.36 23.54 W 8.47 0.42 £243.42
29/10 Ragsah to Place 1.19 24.34 L (24.34) - £219.08
30/10 No email received - - - - - £219.08
31/10 Unable to place bet - - (W) - - £219.08
01/11 Insolenceofoffice to place 1.17 21.91 W 3.72 0.19 £222.61
02/11 Bursaspor/Man U < 3.5 goals 1.28 22.26 W 6.24 0.31 £228.54
03/11 Chelsea Win vs Spartak 1.24 22.85 W 5.48 0.27 £233.75
04/11 PSV Win vs Debrecen 1.16 23.38 W 3.47* 0.17 £237.05
05/11 Araucaria to place 1.25 23.00 W 5.75 0.29 £242.51
06/11 Twente to win 1.18 24.25 W 4.37 0.22 £246.66
07/11 Real vs Athletico over 1.5 goals 1.14 24.67 W 3.45 0.17 £249.94
08/11 National Trust to place 1.17 24.99 W 4.25 0.21 £253.98
09/11 Linfield to win 1.17 25.40 W 4.32 0.22 £258.08
10/11 Rangers to win 1.22 25.81 L (25.81) - £232.27
11/11 Getafe to win 1.29 23.23 L (23.23) - £209.04
12/11 Taurakina to place 1.18 20.90 L (20.90) - £188.14
13/11 PSV Win 1.14 18.81 W 2.42* 0.12 £190.44
14/11 Real Madrid Win 1.35 19.04 W 5.44* 0.27 £195.61
15/11 Williams Wishes to place 1.15 19.56 W 2.93 0.15 £198.39
16/11 No bet today - - - - - £198.39
17/11 Fashionable Gal to win 1.32 19.84 L (19.84) - £178.55
18/11 Franklino to place 1.18 17.86 L (17.86) - £160.69
19/11 Watamu Bay to place 1.10 16.07 W 1.77 0.09 £162.37
20/11 Real Madrid Win 1.20 16.24 W 2.87* 0.14 £165.10
21/11 Copenhagen v Nord > 1.5 goals 1.23 16.51 W 3.80 0.19 £168.71
22/11 Volendam v Emmen > 1.5 goals 1.13 16.87 W 2.19 0.11 £170.79
23/11 Chelsea Win vs Zilina 1.20 17.08 W 3.42 0.17 £174.04

 

* Traded out of this bet early to lock in the profit.

Getting out of a bet early on Betfair often makes sense.

For example, in the PSV vs Debrecen match on the 4th November it was 2-0 to PSV at half-time and 1.01 to lay PSV. Rather than risk an unlikely Debrecen comeback, I took the lay on PSV at 1.01 in order to lock in the profit. In doing so I lost 27p of profit but created a no-risk situation so rather than winning a potentially risky 3.74, I instead took a guaranteed 3.47.

In some emails Clive does recommend trading out if the opportunity arises so it is a valid method to use with this system.

Notes:

14/11/10: Clive's advice here was to back Real Madrid but also back the 0-0 correct score bet as "insurance" with just enough to cover the match bet. Unfortunately I was unable to do this as the bet amount would've been less than the Betfair minimum. In the end it wasn't important as Real won.

05/11/10: The stake should have been £23.71 but unfortunately it wasn't possible to match it all and only £23.00 was taken at 1.25.

31/10/10: Unfortunately I was away from a computer until early afternoon by which time the event (horse racing) had already taken place. It would've been a winning bet.

Conclusion:

Sadly the 30 day risk-free trial period was almost over and the bank was down over 30% so I pulled the plug on this experiment. This was disappointing as I felt the "One A Day" service had a lot of promise but the strike rate wasn't high enough.

Canonbury Publishing can't be faulted - as promised they promptly refunded me the full £290 once I sent a letter asking them for my money back.

Perhaps I joined at the wrong time. Looking at Clive's results blog (linked from the One A Day sales page), prior months had much better strike rates.

 

© Copyright 2005 - 2017 Ben Catt.